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Stadium Background

Afogados da Ingazeira vs Maguary

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 2025 Estadio Valdemar Viana de Araujo
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Joao Guilherme
32'
Dede
40'
Sub
Guilherme Vintem In: Jonnathan Lima
Out: Guilherme Vintem

AI Match Summary

Afogados da Ingazeira host Maguary in the Pernambucano 2025. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Afogados da Ingazeira at 0 goals for, 0 against; Maguary at 1.5 for, 1.25 against. Past meetings favor Afogados da Ingazeira slightly — 1-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 15, 2025, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.23 xG vs 1.30) point toward Afogados da Ingazeira. Afogados da Ingazeira in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Afogados da Ingazeira
33%
Draws
40%
Maguary
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Maguary

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Afogados da Ingazeira has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Maguary.
  • Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Maguary.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Pernambucano 2025 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Afogados da Ingazeira Clean Sheet 19%
Maguary Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afogados da Ingazeira Maguary
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 0 1.5
Goals Conceded 0 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2025 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Maguary
1:1
Feb 24, 2024 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Maguary
3:2
Feb 26, 2023 Pernambucano
Afogados da Ingazeira vs Maguary
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afogados da Ingazeira Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Maguary Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Guilherme
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afogados da Ingazeira 28 / 100
Maguary 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afogados da Ingazeira Maguary

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Afogados da Ingazeira scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Maguary let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Afogados da Ingazeira went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Maguary lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Maguary
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santa Cruz962114:420
2Maguary952213:1017
3Nautico951315:916
4Sport Recife943217:815
5Decisao934211:1213
6Retro93338:1012
7Jaguar932410:1611
8Central SC92348:99
9Afogados da Ingazeira90545:135
10Petrolina90364:143