Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Afragolese play Citta di Fasano in the Serie D - Group H. It looks like a close match. Recently, Afragolese averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Citta di Fasano averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, Afragolese won 1, Citta di Fasano won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 4, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Afragolese and 1.69 for Citta di Fasano. This points to a Citta di Fasano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

Afragolese

19%

Draws

43%

Citta di Fasano

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Citta di Fasano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Afragolese picked up more points recently compared to Citta di Fasano.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 49%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Afragolese Clean Sheet 13%

Citta di Fasano Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Afragolese	Citta di Fasano
Matches Played	30	34
Wins	12	16
Draws	9	8
Losses	9	10
Goals Scored	1.33	1.56
Goals Conceded	1.3	1.24
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group H

Afragolese vs Citta di Fasano

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano vs Afragolese

Possession: 58% - 44% Cards: 0 - 3

2:0

Apr 23, 2023 Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano vs Afragolese

Possession: 54% - 60% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

Dec 11, 2022 Serie D - Group H

Afragolese vs Citta di Fasano

Possession: 59% - 47% Cards: 4 - 0

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afragolese Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrara A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Zerbo G.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Citta di Fasano Compare

Top Goalscorer Corvino V.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Penza E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afragolese 37 / 100

Citta di Fasano 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Afragolese Citta di Fasano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Citta di Fasano or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Afragolese attacking → ← attacking Citta di Fasano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Afragolese scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Citta di Fasano let in goals in 62% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Afragolese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Citta di Fasano lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 56

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barletta	34	20	10	4	54:20	70
2	Martina Calcio	34	18	8	8	47:30	62
3	Citta di Fasano	34	18	8	8	51:35	62
4	Paganese	34	17	7	10	36:32	58
5	A.C.D. Nardo	34	14	13	7	40:27	55
6	Gravina	34	16	7	11	50:40	55
7	Afragolese	34	13	10	11	45:46	49
8	Fidelis Andria	34	13	9	12	35:28	48
9	Virtus Francavilla	34	12	12	10	45:40	48
10	Real Normanna	34	10	13	11	27:26	43
11	Francavilla	34	11	10	13	39:38	43
12	Manfredonia	34	11	10	13	34:39	43
13	Sarnese	34	9	14	11	51:49	41
14	SS Nola 1925	34	11	8	15	42:50	41
15	Heraclea	34	10	8	16	31:39	38
16	Pompei	34	9	7	18	26:38	34
17	Ferrandina	34	7	9	18	21:43	30
18	Acerrana	34	3	5	26	20:74	14