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Afragolese vs US Venafro Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Maiorano F.
62' Event
Ferrara A.
67' Event
Ferrara A.

AI Match Summary

Afragolese in this Serie D - Group G matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Afragolese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Afragolese
30%
Draws
31%
US Venafro
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Afragolese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Afragolese have won more games recently than US Venafro.
  • Model gives Afragolese a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 68%
US Venafro Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afragolese US Venafro
Matches Played 29 6
Wins 8 1
Draws 12 1
Losses 9 4
Goals Scored 1 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.03 1.16
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Afragolese vs US Venafro
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afragolese Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrara A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Maiorano F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.79
Avg xA / game 0.52

US Venafro Compare

Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afragolese 95 / 100
US Venafro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afragolese US Venafro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Afragolese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

US Venafro let in goals in 83% of their last 6 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Afragolese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

US Venafro's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Afragolese VS US Venafro
0.63 Goals Scored 0.57
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.43
75% Over 1.5 43%
38% Over 2.5 29%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Afragolese

(Home)
04 Oct
Afragolese
0 : 2
Ossese
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
Page 1 of 6

US Venafro

(Away)
04 Oct
Gelbison
0 : 1
US Venafro
27 Sept
US Venafro
2 : 3
Budoni Calcio
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Sarnese
13 Sept
Unipomezia
1 : 1
US Venafro
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 6 4 2 0 11:6 14
2 Monastir 6 4 1 1 17:9 13
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 6 4 0 2 10:4 12
4 Unipomezia 6 3 2 1 11:6 11
5 Ossese 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
6 Trastevere Calcio 6 3 2 1 8:10 11
7 Paganese 6 3 1 2 14:9 10
8 Anzio Calcio 1924 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
9 Albalonga 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
10 Gelbison 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
11 Budoni Calcio 6 2 1 3 10:13 7
12 Citta di Anagni 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
13 Aranova 6 1 3 2 6:7 6
14 Afragolese 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Latte Dolce 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
17 US Venafro 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
18 Atl. Lodigiani 6 0 1 5 8:17 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)