Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Afturelding vs Aegir

Iceland Iceland

Division 1 Varmárvöllur, Mosfellsbaer
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Holtan J.
37' Event
Hugason S.
45' Event
Joninuson B.

AI Match Summary

The Division 1 game between Afturelding and Aegir finished 8-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Afturelding.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Afturelding
20%
Draws
0%
Aegir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Afturelding

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Afturelding carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Afturelding a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Afturelding here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Afturelding Clean Sheet 17%
Aegir Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afturelding Aegir
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 18 5
Draws 3 2
Losses 6 21
Goals Scored 2.81 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.78 2.71
Expected Goals (xG) 3.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2026 Division 1
Afturelding vs Aegir
8:1
Sep 9, 2023 Division 1
Afturelding vs Aegir
5:0
Jul 7, 2023 Division 1
Aegir vs Afturelding
1:4
Jul 27, 2016 Division 2
Aegir vs Afturelding
0:1
May 14, 2016 Division 2
Afturelding vs Aegir
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afturelding Compare

Top Goalscorer Holtan J.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Bjarkason O.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.69
Avg xA / game 1.75

Aegir Compare

Top Goalscorer Joninuson B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afturelding 84 / 100
Aegir 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afturelding Aegir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Afturelding Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Afturelding scored in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Aegir conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Aegir's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Afturelding VS Aegir
3.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 3.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Afturelding

(Home)
17 Aug
Afturelding
2 : 2
Kopavogur
13 Aug
Fylkir
3 : 3
Afturelding
07 Aug
Afturelding
4 : 1
Grindavik
29 Jul
Throttur
4 : 1
Afturelding
21 Jul
Fylkir
1 : 2
Afturelding
Page 1 of 6

Aegir

(Away)
17 Aug
Leiknir Reykjavik
6 : 1
Aegir
13 Aug
Aegir
0 : 2
Volsungur
06 Aug
IR Reykjavik
3 : 2
Aegir
28 Jul
Aegir
0 : 1
Njardvik
18 Jul
Grotta
6 : 1
Aegir
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Throttur 19 11 4 4 41:20 37
2 Afturelding 18 11 3 4 53:31 36
3 Fylkir 19 11 1 7 39:32 34
4 Kopavogur 19 10 2 7 44:35 32
5 Njardvik 19 10 2 7 32:26 32
6 Grotta 18 8 3 7 34:33 27
7 Leiknir Reykjavik 19 7 4 8 30:28 25
8 Vestri 19 7 3 9 28:39 24
9 IR Reykjavik 19 6 4 9 33:40 22
10 Grindavik 19 4 9 6 19:25 21
11 Volsungur 19 5 5 9 27:39 20
12 Aegir 19 2 2 15 22:54 8
Promotion - Besta deild karla 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 2027 (Main)