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Agnonese vs US Tolentino

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Amaya F.
39' Event
Padovani E.
60' Event
Sosa F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 game between Agnonese and US Tolentino finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Agnonese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Agnonese
15%
Draws
59%
US Tolentino
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: US Tolentino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and US Tolentino come out ahead of Agnonese on wins alone.
  • Agnonese are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Agnonese Clean Sheet 20%
US Tolentino Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Agnonese US Tolentino
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 3 7
Draws 6 8
Losses 21 17
Goals Scored 0.8 0.69
Goals Conceded 2.33 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Agnonese vs US Tolentino
2:1
Feb 10, 2021 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Agnonese
2:0
Mar 29, 2020 Serie D - Group F
Agnonese vs US Tolentino
0:0
Nov 17, 2019 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Agnonese
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Agnonese Compare

Top Goalscorer Amaya F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sosa F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

US Tolentino Compare

Top Goalscorer Padovani E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Agnonese 42 / 100
US Tolentino 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Agnonese US Tolentino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

US Tolentino's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Agnonese found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Agnonese has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS US Tolentino
0 Goals Scored 0.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Agnonese

(Home)
19 Jun
Agnonese
2 : 2
Montegiorgio
16 Jun
Castelfidardo
4 : 0
Agnonese
13 Jun
Agnonese
2 : 4
Aprilia
06 Jun
Agnonese
0 : 2
Roma City
30 May
Agnonese
1 : 0
Porto Sant'Elpidio
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US Tolentino

(Away)
29 Jul
Ascoli
5 : 0
US Tolentino
07 May
US Tolentino
1 : 0
Roma City
30 Apr
Porto D'Ascoli
1 : 2
US Tolentino
23 Apr
US Tolentino
2 : 1
Trastevere Calcio
16 Apr
Avezzano
3 : 0
US Tolentino
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campobasso 34 21 9 4 63:29 72
2 Notaresco Calcio 34 18 10 6 59:34 64
3 Pineto 34 15 11 8 45:33 56
4 Cynthialbalonga 34 14 14 6 51:35 56
5 Matese 34 15 11 8 46:38 56
6 Castelfidardo 34 14 13 7 46:33 55
7 Recanatese 34 13 11 10 62:45 50
8 Castelnuovo Vomano 34 14 8 12 53:53 50
9 Vastese 34 12 13 9 45:37 48
10 Montegiorgio 34 13 7 14 42:42 46
11 FC Rieti 34 12 8 14 38:42 44
12 Aprilia 34 11 11 12 43:49 44
13 Roma City 34 8 16 10 40:41 40
14 US Tolentino 34 9 13 12 52:53 40
15 Vastogirardi 34 10 10 14 46:51 40
16 Giulianova 34 7 10 17 33:50 31
17 Porto Sant'Elpidio 34 4 5 25 22:63 17
18 Agnonese 34 3 6 25 25:83 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 (Play Offs)