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Agrimaq vs Guarany Alagoano

Brazil Brazil

Alagoano 2 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Agrimaq play Guarany Alagoano in the Alagoano 2 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Agrimaq averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. Guarany Alagoano averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.96 conceded. In past meetings, Agrimaq won 0, Guarany Alagoano won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 4, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Agrimaq and 1.75 for Guarany Alagoano. This points to a Guarany Alagoano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Agrimaq
25%
Draws
44%
Guarany Alagoano
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Guarany Alagoano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Agrimaq picked up more points recently compared to Guarany Alagoano.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Agrimaq Clean Sheet 12%
Guarany Alagoano Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Agrimaq Guarany Alagoano
Matches Played 9 28
Wins 4 15
Draws 1 7
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 1.56 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.56 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 Alagoano 2
Guarany Alagoano vs Agrimaq
1:1
Sep 27, 2025 Alagoano 2
Agrimaq vs Guarany Alagoano
0:2
Aug 23, 2025 Alagoano 2
Agrimaq vs Guarany Alagoano
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Agrimaq Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Guarany Alagoano Compare

Top Goalscorer Araujo Silva M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Galeguinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Agrimaq 30 / 100
Guarany Alagoano 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Agrimaq Guarany Alagoano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guarany Alagoano or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Agrimaq attacking → ← attacking Guarany Alagoano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Agrimaq scored in 67% of their last 9 games.

Guarany Alagoano let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Agrimaq went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Guarany Alagoano lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

13 Points in last 5 52
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50