Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021 Estádio Municipal de Águeda

Agueda

1 - 0

Lusitano FCV

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021 game between Agueda and Lusitano FCV finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Agueda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Agueda

39%

Draws

31%

Lusitano FCV

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Lusitano FCV come out ahead of Agueda on wins alone.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%

Agueda Clean Sheet 68%

Lusitano FCV Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Agueda	Lusitano FCV
Matches Played	24	26
Wins	4	5
Draws	5	4
Losses	15	17
Goals Scored	0.5	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Lusitano FCV vs Agueda

Possession: 48% - 45% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Nov 7, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Agueda vs Lusitano FCV

Possession: 41% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Jan 27, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B

Agueda vs Lusitano FCV

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 2 - 0

2:2

Aug 19, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B

Lusitano FCV vs Agueda

Possession: 50% - 45% Cards: 4 - 0

0:1

Mar 11, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Agueda vs Lusitano FCV

Possession: 55% - 58% Cards: 4 - 3

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Agueda 41 / 100

Lusitano FCV 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Agueda Lusitano FCV

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AGU Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitano FCV let in goals in 81% of their last 26 matches.

Away concern: Lusitano FCV has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Agueda scored in 54% of their last 24 games.

Scoring Trends

Agueda VS Lusitano FCV

0.5 Goals Scored 1.25

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63

75% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Anadia	22	13	5	4	39:15	44
2	Canelas 2010	22	12	5	5	28:13	41
3	Lusitania FC	22	11	6	5	38:26	39
4	Sao Joao de Ver	22	10	8	4	30:14	38
5	Sanjoanense	22	8	12	2	26:13	36
6	Castro Daire	22	10	5	7	23:24	35
7	Valadares Gaia FC	22	10	3	9	36:27	33
8	SC Espinho	22	9	4	9	33:22	31
9	Beira Mar	22	9	4	9	30:23	31
10	Agueda	22	4	5	13	17:28	17
11	Lusitano FCV	22	4	4	14	17:34	16
12	Vila Cortez	22	1	1	20	8:86	4