Sport Picks

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Aguia De Maraba vs ABC

Brazil Brazil

Serie D Estadio Municipal Zinho de Oliveira
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aguia De Maraba play ABC in the Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguia De Maraba averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. ABC averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Aguia De Maraba won 1, ABC won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 4, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Aguia De Maraba and 1.81 for ABC. This points to a Aguia De Maraba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Aguia De Maraba
22%
Draws
35%
ABC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Aguia De Maraba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Aguia De Maraba picked up more points recently compared to ABC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Aguia De Maraba Clean Sheet 11%
ABC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia De Maraba ABC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 15
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.62 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Serie D
Aguia De Maraba vs ABC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguia De Maraba Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlos Maia
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

ABC Compare

Top Goalscorer Igor Bahia
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia De Maraba 41 / 100
ABC 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia De Maraba ABC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aguia De Maraba or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguia De Maraba attacking → ← attacking ABC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia De Maraba scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

ABC let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Aguia De Maraba went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

ABC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 53
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38