Sport Picks
Monterey Bay vs Lexington Prediction & H2H Stats
USA
USL Championship Cardinale Stadium, Seaside, CA 
Match Events
1'
1'
Fry M.
Assist: Nick Firmino
5'
5'
Farnsworth Z.
Assist: Elliot Q.
23'
23'
Farnsworth Z.
AI Match Summary
Lexington in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lexington.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
15%
20%
65%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lexington
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Lexington lately — more wins on the board than Monterey Bay.
- Model gives Lexington a 65% chance of winning this.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 10%
Lexington Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Monterey Bay | Lexington |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 14 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 18 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 27, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Lexington
2:3
Aug 1, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs Monterey Bay
3:2
May 8, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs Monterey Bay
3:1
Jun 8, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Lexington
2:1
Apr 19, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs Monterey Bay
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Monterey Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Farnsworth Z.
1 Goals Assists Leader Otoya D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Lexington Compare
Top Goalscorer Fry M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Goodrum P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Monterey Bay 10 / 100
Lexington 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Monterey Bay Lexington
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lexington Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Monterey Bay scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Lexington conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.
Monterey Bay has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Monterey Bay VS Lexington
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Monterey Bay
(Home) 27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
22 Aug
Rhode Island
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
09 Aug
Monterey Bay
2 : 5 New Mexico
26 Jul
Monterey Bay
1 : 2 Orange County SC
Page 1 of 3
Lexington
(Away) 27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4 Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2 Lexington
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4 Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2 Lexington
27 Aug
New Mexico
2 : 1 Lexington
16 Aug
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Lexington
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 45:23 | 52 |
| 2 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 32:20 | 44 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:32 | 33 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:44 | 33 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 36:42 | 23 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 31:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26:52 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 45:32 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 39:31 | 43 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 36:24 | 43 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31:24 | 41 |
| 5 | Lexington | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 46:32 | 40 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 40:37 | 39 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 35:40 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 29:28 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34:38 | 33 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:35 | 33 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35:38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27:46 | 18 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
