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Aguia FC vs 1º de Maio

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 3
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Match Events

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AI Match Summary

Aguia FC host 1º de Maio in the Pernambucano 3. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. 1º de Maio have shipped 2.29 goals a game lately, while Aguia FC have conceded 1.25 and scored 1.5. Head-to-head, Aguia FC have won 1 to 1º de Maio's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Oct 8, 2024, ending 4:1. Model xG sits at 1.90 vs 1.05, favoring Aguia FC. Aguia FC in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Aguia FC
17%
Draws
13%
1º de Maio
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Aguia FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Aguia FC demonstrates higher offensive output (1.5 avg goals) than 1º de Maio (0.86 avg goals).
  • Model forecasts a 70% win probability edge for Aguia FC.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Pernambucano 3 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Aguia FC Clean Sheet 20%
1º de Maio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia FC 1º de Maio
Matches Played 15 32
Wins 5 5
Draws 4 8
Losses 6 19
Goals Scored 1.5 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.29

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2024 Pernambucano 3
Aguia FC vs 1º de Maio
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia FC 67 / 100
1º de Maio 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia FC 1º de Maio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AGU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia FC scored in 73% of their last 15 games.

1º de Maio let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Aguia FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

1º de Maio lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aguia FC VS 1º de Maio
1.5 Goals Scored 0.86
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.29
100% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 43%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1America PE761018:419
2Caruaru742112:714
3Aguia FC733112:812
4Belo Jardim733111:712
5Pesqueira71513:48
6Cha Grande71158:144
71º de Maio71156:164
8Sete de Setembro (PE)70255:152