Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aguia Negra vs Comercial MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aguia Negra play Comercial MS in the Sul-Matogrossense 2 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguia Negra averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Comercial MS averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, Aguia Negra won 3, Comercial MS won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 20, 2024 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Aguia Negra and 1.25 for Comercial MS. This points to a Aguia Negra double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Aguia Negra
22%
Draws
31%
Comercial MS
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Aguia Negra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Aguia Negra picked up more points recently compared to Comercial MS.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 19%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia Negra Comercial MS
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 8 5
Draws 10 7
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.21 1.08
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 20, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Aguia Negra vs Comercial MS
2:1
Sep 15, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs Aguia Negra
0:2
Feb 1, 2020 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Aguia Negra
1:2
Feb 9, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Aguia Negra
1:0
Apr 14, 2016 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Aguia Negra
2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia Negra 46 / 100
Comercial MS 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia Negra Comercial MS

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aguia Negra or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguia Negra attacking → ← attacking Comercial MS

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia Negra scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Comercial MS let in goals in 88% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Aguia Negra went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Comercial MS lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 22
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Naviraiense853015:318
2Aguia Negra843110:615
37 de Setembro832312:1511
4Comercial MS821511:177
5Operario AC80356:133
6Misto00000:00