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Aguia Negra vs Dourados

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aguia Negra play Dourados in the Sul-Matogrossense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguia Negra averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Dourados averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Aguia Negra won 1, Dourados won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 31, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Aguia Negra and 1.56 for Dourados. This points to a Dourados double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Aguia Negra
31%
Draws
40%
Dourados
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Dourados

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Aguia Negra picked up more points recently compared to Dourados.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 15%
Dourados Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia Negra Dourados
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 10 11
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.18 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Aguia Negra
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Aguia Negra
2:2
Mar 5, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Dourados
2:1
Jan 26, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Aguia Negra
3:0
Feb 26, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Aguia Negra
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguia Negra Compare

Top Goalscorer dos Santos Virgulino F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lucas Paulista
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dourados Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcos G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia Negra 29 / 100
Dourados 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia Negra Dourados

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dourados or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguia Negra attacking → ← attacking Dourados

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia Negra scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Dourados let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Aguia Negra went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Dourados lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 44
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38