Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Aguia Negra play Dourados in the Sul-Matogrossense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguia Negra averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Dourados averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Aguia Negra won 1, Dourados won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 31, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Aguia Negra and 1.56 for Dourados. This points to a Dourados double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Aguia Negra picked up more points recently compared to Dourados.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.56 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Aguia Negra | Dourados |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 11 |
| Draws | 10 | 11 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.18 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.63 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Aguia Negra Compare
Dourados Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Aguia Negra scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Dourados let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Aguia Negra went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Dourados lost 2 of their last 5 games.
Match Risk Analysis
Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability
Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.
Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.
Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics