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Aguia Negra vs Naviraiense

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense
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AI Match Summary

Aguia Negra play Naviraiense in the Sul-Matogrossense. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguia Negra averaged 1 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Naviraiense averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Aguia Negra won 1, Naviraiense won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Mar 1, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Aguia Negra and 1.50 for Naviraiense. This points to a Naviraiense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Aguia Negra
39%
Draws
30%
Naviraiense
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Naviraiense has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Aguia Negra.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Sul-Matogrossense provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 16%
Naviraiense Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia Negra Naviraiense
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 7 13
Draws 10 9
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Naviraiense
1:2
Jan 22, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Naviraiense
3:2
Oct 27, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Naviraiense vs Aguia Negra
1:1
Sep 22, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Aguia Negra vs Naviraiense
0:0
Mar 6, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Aguia Negra
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia Negra 31 / 100
Naviraiense 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia Negra Naviraiense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia Negra scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Naviraiense let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Aguia Negra went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Naviraiense lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aguia Negra VS Naviraiense
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Naviraiense953113:918
2Operario MS945014:517
3Corumbaense934210:713
4Ivinhema933310:1112
5Bataguassu933315:1712
6Dourados924315:1410
7Clube de Regatas Aquidauana924312:1310
8Pantanal923410:159
9Costa Rica91536:108
10Aguia Negra91449:137