Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aguilas Doradas vs Dep. Pasto

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Alberto Grisales
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aguilas Doradas play Dep. Pasto in the Primera A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguilas Doradas averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Dep. Pasto averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Aguilas Doradas won 0, Dep. Pasto won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 25, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Aguilas Doradas and 1.50 for Dep. Pasto. This points to a Dep. Pasto double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Aguilas Doradas
25%
Draws
41%
Dep. Pasto
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Dep. Pasto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Aguilas Doradas picked up more points recently compared to Dep. Pasto.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Aguilas Doradas Clean Sheet 16%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguilas Doradas Dep. Pasto
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.33 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Primera A
Aguilas Doradas vs Dep. Pasto
1:2
Oct 13, 2025 Primera A
Aguilas Doradas vs Dep. Pasto
2:2
Apr 22, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas
1:0
Oct 29, 2024 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas
3:1
Apr 6, 2024 Primera A
Aguilas Doradas vs Dep. Pasto
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguilas Doradas Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivaldo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dep. Pasto Compare

Top Goalscorer Estupinan A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguilas Doradas 34 / 100
Dep. Pasto 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguilas Doradas Dep. Pasto

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dep. Pasto or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguilas Doradas attacking → ← attacking Dep. Pasto

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguilas Doradas scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Dep. Pasto let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Aguilas Doradas went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Dep. Pasto lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 49
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atl. Nacional19131535:1540
2Junior19112631:2435
3Dep. Pasto19104529:2534
4America De Cali19103625:1533
5Once Caldas1989231:2233
6Deportes Tolima1987427:1731
7Santa Fe1978429:2229
8Inter Bogotá1977526:2628
9Dep. Cali1976620:1627
10Millonarios1975731:2326
11Ind. Medellin1975726:2426
12Aguilas Doradas1975720:2526
13Bucaramanga1958626:2023
14Llaneros19410517:2022
15Fortaleza C.E.I.F.1957722:2722
16Jaguares de Cordoba19531120:3318
17Alianza1938813:2717
18Chico19521215:3217
19Cucuta1937922:3516
20Dep. Pereira19171115:3210