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Ahal vs Arkadag - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
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AI Match Summary

The Yokary Liga game between Ahal and Arkadag finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arkadag.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Ahal
15%
Draws
61%
Arkadag
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arkadag

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arkadag come out ahead of Ahal on wins alone.
  • Arkadag are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).
  • Arkadag have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Ahal Clean Sheet 10%
Arkadag Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ahal Arkadag
Matches Played 32 34
Wins 19 32
Draws 5 0
Losses 8 2
Goals Scored 2.22 3.44
Goals Conceded 1.19 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:4
Aug 16, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
2:1
May 20, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:4
Apr 12, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ahal 10 / 100
Arkadag 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ahal Arkadag

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arkadag Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ahal found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Arkadag has conceded goals in 38% of their last 34 outings.

Recent resilience: Ahal stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ahal VS Arkadag
2.13 Goals Scored 3.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ahal

(Home)
07 Oct
Ahal
0 : 2
Altyn Asyr
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
19 Sept
FC Asgabat
2 : 5
Ahal
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
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Arkadag

(Away)
03 Oct
Arkadag
5 : 0
Kopetdag Asgabat
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
24 Sept
Merw
0 : 5
Arkadag
20 Sept
Kopetdag Asgabat
0 : 1
Arkadag
15 Sept
Arkadag
1 : 0
Al Muharraq
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