Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ajax vs AEK Larnaca

World World

Club Friendly Stichting Sportpark de Eendracht, Amsterdam
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Sub
Bajic R. In: Rubio W.
Out: Bajic R.
39'
Berghuis S.
46'
Sub
Mokio J. In: Nash P.
Out: Mokio J.

AI Match Summary

Ajax in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ajax.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Ajax
28%
Draws
22%
AEK Larnaca
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Ajax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • AEK Larnaca have won more games recently than Ajax.
  • Ajax are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Ajax Clean Sheet 20%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax AEK Larnaca
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 10 7
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 Club Friendly
Ajax vs AEK Larnaca
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Ouazane A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

AEK Larnaca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax 49 / 100
AEK Larnaca 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax AEK Larnaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AJA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).

AEK Larnaca has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Ajax went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Ajax VS AEK Larnaca
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ajax

(Home)
18 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
Olympiacos Piraeus
15 Jul
Ajax
1 : 1
Bochum
10 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
AEK Larnaca
04 Jul
Ajax
1 : 3
Panathinaikos
24 May
Ajax
2 : 1
Utrecht
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AEK Larnaca

(Away)
16 Jul
Apollon Limassol
0 : 0
AEK Larnaca
10 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
AEK Larnaca
07 Jul
PAOK
3 : 2
AEK Larnaca
04 Jul
Helmond Sport
1 : 2
AEK Larnaca
22 May
Aris Limassol
3 : 4
AEK Larnaca
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