Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ajax vs AEK Larnaca

World World

Club Friendly Stichting Sportpark de Eendracht, Amsterdam
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Sub
Bajic R. In: Rubio W.
Out: Bajic R.
39'
Berghuis S.
46'
Sub
Mokio J. In: Nash P.
Out: Mokio J.

AI Match Summary

Ajax in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ajax.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Ajax
15%
Draws
36%
AEK Larnaca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ajax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Ajax have won more games recently than AEK Larnaca.
  • Ajax are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Ajax Clean Sheet 13%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax AEK Larnaca
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 11
Draws 7 8
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 2.28 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 Club Friendly
Ajax vs AEK Larnaca
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Ouazane A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

AEK Larnaca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax 84 / 100
AEK Larnaca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax AEK Larnaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ajax Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

AEK Larnaca has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Ajax went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Ajax VS AEK Larnaca
3.13 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 63%
88% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ajax

(Home)
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1
Willem II
12 Sept
Sittard
1 : 5
Ajax
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3
PSV
30 Aug
Telstar
0 : 4
Ajax
27 Aug
Ajax
5 : 3
Sion
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AEK Larnaca

(Away)
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
06 Sept
Nea Salamis
1 : 4
AEK Larnaca
29 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 1
APOEL
21 Aug
AEK Larnaca
5 : 2
Omonia 29th May
12 Aug
Asteras Tripolis
3 : 1
AEK Larnaca
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