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Ajax vs Excelsior - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax Logo

Ajax

2 - 2
FT
Excelsior Logo

Excelsior

Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Sub
Caio Henrique In: Wijndal O.
Out: Caio Henrique
32' Event
Brandt J.
Assist: Dolberg K.
35'
Plug J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Eredivisie matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Ajax
15%
Draws
21%
Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ajax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Ajax have won more games recently than Excelsior.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Ajax taking it.
  • Regular Eredivisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Ajax Clean Sheet 17%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax Excelsior
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 21 12
Draws 7 5
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 2.33 2
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Excelsior
2:2
Feb 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Ajax
2:2
Nov 22, 2025 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Excelsior
1:2
Apr 24, 2024 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Excelsior
2:2
Aug 19, 2023 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Ajax
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Brandt J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arokodare T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Hartjes L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sliti A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax 84 / 100
Excelsior 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ajax Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 8:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Excelsior has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Ajax went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ajax VS Excelsior
2.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ajax

(Home)
31 Oct
Ajax
1 : 0
AZ Alkmaar
25 Oct
Sparta Rotterdam
1 : 2
Ajax
22 Oct
Ajax
2 : 0
Atalanta
18 Oct
Groningen
2 : 5
Ajax
15 Oct
Hajduk Split
2 : 1
Ajax
Page 1 of 7

Excelsior

(Away)
28 Oct
Maastricht
0 : 3
Excelsior
25 Oct
Sittard
1 : 0
Excelsior
16 Oct
Heerenveen
4 : 0
Excelsior
11 Oct
Excelsior
1 : 5
Groningen
19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2
Excelsior
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Feyenoord 11 7 4 0 33:12 25
2 Ajax 11 7 3 1 30:13 24
3 PSV 11 7 2 2 35:13 23
4 Twente 11 7 2 2 28:10 23
5 AZ Alkmaar 11 6 2 3 20:13 20
6 Sittard 11 5 4 2 18:18 19
7 Heerenveen 11 5 3 3 19:13 18
8 Groningen 11 4 3 4 26:24 15
9 Cambuur 11 4 3 4 23:22 15
10 G.A. Eagles 11 3 5 3 23:27 14
11 Sparta Rotterdam 11 3 3 5 20:26 12
12 Utrecht 11 3 3 5 19:31 12
13 Nijmegen 11 2 5 4 17:19 11
14 Zwolle 11 3 2 6 12:23 11
15 Excelsior 11 3 2 6 16:28 11
16 Telstar 11 2 3 6 16:23 9
17 Den Haag 11 1 3 7 13:24 6
18 Willem II 11 0 2 9 10:39 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)