Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ajax vs Utrecht

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Kras Stadion, Volendam
Sun, May 24, 2026
2 - 1
10:15 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

54'
Sub
Mokio J. In: Steur S.
Out: Mokio J.
60'
Sub
Stepanov A. In: Haller S.
Out: Stepanov A.
61'
Sub
Eerdhuijzen M. In: Viergever N.
Out: Eerdhuijzen M.

AI Match Summary

Ajax in this Eredivisie 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Ajax
39%
Draws
31%
Utrecht
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ajax lately — more wins on the board than Utrecht.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Ajax have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Utrecht, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Ajax Clean Sheet 20%
Utrecht Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax Utrecht
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 10 4
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Utrecht
2:1
May 10, 2026 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Utrecht
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Ajax
2:1
Apr 20, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Ajax
4:0
Dec 4, 2024 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Utrecht
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Klaassen D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Utrecht Compare

Top Goalscorer Zechiel G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax 31 / 100
Utrecht 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax Utrecht

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AJA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Utrecht has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Ajax has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ajax VS Utrecht
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ajax

(Home)
18 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
Olympiacos Piraeus
15 Jul
Ajax
1 : 1
Bochum
10 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
AEK Larnaca
04 Jul
Ajax
1 : 3
Panathinaikos
24 May
Ajax
2 : 1
Utrecht
Page 1 of 7

Utrecht

(Away)
17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2
V-Varen Nagasaki
07 Jul
Utrecht
0 : 1
Apollon Limassol
27 Jun
Utrecht
1 : 2
De Graafschap
24 May
Ajax
2 : 1
Utrecht
21 May
Utrecht
3 : 2
Heerenveen
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ajax2
Groningen0
Utrecht3
Heerenveen2
Final
Ajax2
Utrecht1