Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ajax vs Utrecht

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Kras Stadion, Volendam
Sun, May 24, 2026
2 - 1
10:15 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

54'
Sub
Mokio J. In: Steur S.
Out: Mokio J.
60'
Sub
Stepanov A. In: Haller S.
Out: Stepanov A.
61'
Sub
Eerdhuijzen M. In: Viergever N.
Out: Eerdhuijzen M.

AI Match Summary

Ajax in this Eredivisie 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Ajax
20%
Draws
24%
Utrecht
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ajax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ajax lately — more wins on the board than Utrecht.
  • Model gives Ajax a 56% chance of winning this.
  • Ajax have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Utrecht, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Ajax Clean Sheet 17%
Utrecht Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax Utrecht
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 13
Draws 7 5
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 2.28 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.81 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Utrecht
2:1
May 10, 2026 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Utrecht
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Ajax
2:1
Apr 20, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Ajax
4:0
Dec 4, 2024 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Utrecht
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Klaassen D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.41

Utrecht Compare

Top Goalscorer Zechiel G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax 84 / 100
Utrecht 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax Utrecht

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ajax Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Utrecht has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Ajax has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ajax VS Utrecht
3.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
88% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ajax

(Home)
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1
Willem II
12 Sept
Sittard
1 : 5
Ajax
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3
PSV
30 Aug
Telstar
0 : 4
Ajax
27 Aug
Ajax
5 : 3
Sion
Page 1 of 6

Utrecht

(Away)
13 Sept
Excelsior
1 : 2
Utrecht
08 Sept
Utrecht
3 : 3
G.A. Eagles
30 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 6
PSV
22 Aug
Sparta Rotterdam
3 : 3
Utrecht
15 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 4
AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ajax 2
Groningen 0
Utrecht 3
Heerenveen 2
Final
Ajax 2
Utrecht 1