Sport Picks
Match Events
41'
41'
Klaassen D.
Assist: Dolberg K.
45'
45'
Brandt J.
Assist: Rosa L.
46'
46'
Sub
van Loon P. In: Ciranni A.
Out: van Loon P.
AI Match Summary
The Eredivisie game between Ajax and Willem II finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ajax.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
30%
12%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ajax
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Ajax carry the better recent record into this one.
- Ajax are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Eredivisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Ajax have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Ajax Clean Sheet 19%
Willem II Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 35 | 29 |
| Wins | 19 | 15 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2.26 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.2 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.88 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 15, 2026 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Willem II
5:1
Apr 13, 2025 Eredivisie
Willem II vs Ajax
1:2
Oct 27, 2024 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Willem II
1:0
Feb 19, 2022 Eredivisie
Willem II vs Ajax
0:1
Dec 2, 2021 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Willem II
5:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ajax Compare
Top Goalscorer Klaassen D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Brandt J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44
Willem II Compare
Top Goalscorer Ciranni A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ajax 85 / 100
Willem II 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ajax Willem II
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ajax Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ajax scored in 91% of their last 35 games.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Defensive concern: Willem II conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.
Solid form: Ajax remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Ajax VS Willem II
3.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
88% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Ajax
(Home) 19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2 Excelsior
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1 Willem II
12 Sept
Sittard
1 : 5 Ajax
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3 PSV
30 Aug
Telstar
0 : 4 Ajax
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2 Excelsior
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1 Willem II
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3 PSV
27 Aug
Ajax
5 : 3 Sion
16 Aug
Ajax
2 : 2 Heerenveen
Page 1 of 5
Willem II
(Away) 19 Sept
Willem II
0 : 1 Sittard
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1 Willem II
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3 Excelsior
30 Aug
Willem II
2 : 2 Heerenveen
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1 Willem II
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1 Willem II
08 Aug
G.A. Eagles
4 : 1 Willem II
29 Jun
RKDSV
0 : 11 Willem II
23 May
FC Volendam
1 : 3 Willem II
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:7 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24:10 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21:9 | 14 |
| 6 | Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:14 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 11 |
| 9 | G.A. Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16:14 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 11 | Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10:17 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:12 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10:19 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11:24 | 5 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:20 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7:17 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6:20 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)
