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Akragas vs Castrumfavara

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2024/2025
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Match Events

90' Event
Baglione S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 game between Akragas and Castrumfavara finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castrumfavara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Akragas
30%
Draws
58%
Castrumfavara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castrumfavara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Castrumfavara carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Akragas taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Akragas Clean Sheet 20%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Akragas Castrumfavara
Matches Played 23 35
Wins 2 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.57 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Akragas vs Castrumfavara
0:1
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Akragas
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Akragas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Castrumfavara Compare

Top Goalscorer Baglione S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akragas 36 / 100
Castrumfavara 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Akragas Castrumfavara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castrumfavara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 35 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Attacking prowess: Akragas scored in 39% of their last 23 outings.

Recent resilience: Akragas stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Castrumfavara
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Akragas

(Home)
09 Mar
Reggina
2 : 0
Akragas
02 Mar
Akragas
0 : 0
AS Acireale
23 Feb
USD Ragusa
3 : 0
Akragas
16 Feb
Akragas
1 : 2
S. Agata
09 Feb
Scafatese
3 : 1
Akragas
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Castrumfavara

(Away)
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
06 Sept
Castrumfavara
3 : 0
Milazzo
03 May
Castrumfavara
2 : 2
Enna
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Siracusa 32 25 3 4 65:16 78
2 Reggina 32 24 5 3 65:22 77
3 Scafatese 32 20 5 7 58:26 65
4 Sambiase 32 15 9 8 40:27 54
5 Vibonese 32 15 5 12 44:31 50
6 Nissa 32 11 13 8 48:49 46
7 Paterno 32 10 14 8 26:32 44
8 USD Ragusa 32 9 11 12 37:37 38
9 Pompei 32 10 8 14 29:42 38
10 Igea Virtus 32 10 7 15 36:47 37
11 Sancataldese 32 7 14 11 28:40 35
12 Enna 32 7 14 11 21:39 35
13 AS Acireale 32 8 10 14 35:50 34
14 Castrumfavara 32 5 15 12 27:40 30
15 Licata 32 8 4 20 33:55 28
16 S. Agata 32 6 9 17 40:54 27
17 Locri 1909 32 6 6 20 32:57 24
18 Akragas 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 (Play Out)