Sport Picks

Bulgaria

Third League - North-East

Ustrem Donchevo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aksakovo play Ustrem Donchevo in the Third League - North-East. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aksakovo averaged 1.23 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. Ustrem Donchevo averaged 2.27 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Aksakovo won 1, Ustrem Donchevo won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Aksakovo and 1.75 for Ustrem Donchevo. This points to a Ustrem Donchevo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Aksakovo

15%

Draws

54%

Ustrem Donchevo

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ustrem Donchevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Aksakovo picked up more points recently compared to Ustrem Donchevo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 91%

Over 2.5 Goals 80%

Over 3.5 Goals 48%

Over 4.5 Goals 24%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%

Aksakovo Clean Sheet 12%

Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 82%

Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aksakovo	Ustrem Donchevo
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	9	16
Draws	4	3
Losses	17	11
Goals Scored	1.23	2.27
Goals Conceded	2.1	2
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Third League - North-East

Aksakovo vs Ustrem Donchevo

Possession: 47% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

2:3

Oct 4, 2025 Third League - North-East

Ustrem Donchevo vs Aksakovo

Possession: 49% - 51% Cards: 3 - 4

5:0

Mar 29, 2025 Third League - North-East

Ustrem Donchevo vs Aksakovo

Possession: 49% - 56% Cards: 1 - 2

3:2

Sep 21, 2024 Third League - North-East

Aksakovo vs Ustrem Donchevo

Possession: 48% - 50% Cards: 2 - 2

3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aksakovo 30 / 100

Ustrem Donchevo 51 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aksakovo Ustrem Donchevo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ustrem Donchevo Win (2)

Secondary Pick Ustrem Donchevo & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8%

1.35

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aksakovo attacking → ← attacking Ustrem Donchevo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aksakovo scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Ustrem Donchevo let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.75 goals.

Aksakovo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ustrem Donchevo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 51

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chernomorets Balchik	32	27	4	1	92:14	85
2	Ludogorets III	32	25	4	3	101:19	79
3	Septemvri Tervel	32	25	3	4	89:22	78
4	Volov Shumen	32	23	3	6	93:28	72
5	Chernolomets	32	20	3	9	78:43	63
6	Benkovski	32	18	6	8	68:40	60
7	Cherno More II	32	16	7	9	65:44	55
8	Ustrem Donchevo	32	17	3	12	73:67	54
9	Olympic Varna	32	10	6	16	58:80	36
10	Aksakovo	32	9	4	19	40:68	31
11	Fratria II	32	8	6	18	40:71	30
12	Svetkavitsa 2014	32	7	8	17	26:48	29
13	Botev Novi Pazar	32	8	5	19	34:69	29
14	Dorostol	32	8	4	20	29:67	28
15	Spartak Varna II	32	7	5	20	42:72	26
16	FK Riltzi	32	6	4	22	31:83	22
17	Svetkavitsa	32	0	1	31	5:129	1