Sport Picks
Aktobe vs Ertis Pavlodar Prediction & H2H Stats
Kazakhstan
Premier League Koblandy Batyr Stadium, Aktobe 
Match Events
12'
12'
Sedko P.
19'
19'
Omatay M.
45'
45'
Mitrovic D.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Aktobe and Ertis Pavlodar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aktobe.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
15%
40%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aktobe
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Aktobe come out ahead of Ertis Pavlodar on wins alone.
- Model gives Aktobe a 45% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Aktobe Clean Sheet 17%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Aktobe | Ertis Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 8 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Aktobe
2:1
Apr 25, 2026 Premier League
Aktobe vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:0
Aug 25, 2019 Premier League
Aktobe vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:1
Jun 30, 2019 Premier League
Aktobe vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:1
Apr 20, 2019 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Aktobe
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Aktobe Compare
Top Goalscorer Shushenachev A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Aktobe 57 / 100
Ertis Pavlodar 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Aktobe Ertis Pavlodar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aktobe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Aktobe scored in 80% of their last 30 games.
Ertis Pavlodar has conceded goals in 89% of their last 28 outings.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Aktobe has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Aktobe VS Ertis Pavlodar
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Aktobe
(Home) 18 Sept
Aktobe
2 : 2 Ulytau
12 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 2 Aktobe
05 Sept
Aktobe
1 : 0 Zhenis
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
15 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 2 Aktobe
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Aktobe
2 : 2 Ulytau
05 Sept
Aktobe
1 : 0 Zhenis
25 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
21 Jun
Aktobe
2 : 0 FC Astana
Page 1 of 3
Ertis Pavlodar
(Away) 18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
09 Aug
Yelimay Semey
3 : 1 Ertis Pavlodar
25 Jul
Ulytau
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Ertis Pavlodar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26:34 | 26 |
| 12 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26:40 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
