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Al Ahed vs Al Riyadi Abbasiyah Prediction & H2H Stats

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2025/2026 Beirut Municipal Stadium, Beirut
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Mansour N.
77' Event
Ofori S.
Assist: Al Hajj Mohammed S.

AI Match Summary

Al Riyadi Abbasiyah in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Riyadi Abbasiyah.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Al Ahed
30%
Draws
61%
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Riyadi Abbasiyah

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Ahed lately — more wins on the board than Al Riyadi Abbasiyah.
  • Model gives Al Riyadi Abbasiyah a 61% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Ahed have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 14%
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahed Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 19 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.56 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 Premier League
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah vs Al Ahed
0:3
Mar 14, 2025 Premier League
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah vs Al Ahed
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahed Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Al Riyadi Abbasiyah Compare

Top Goalscorer Ofori S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahed 10 / 100
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahed Al Riyadi Abbasiyah

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Riyadi Abbasiyah Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahed scored in 77% of their last 35 games.

Defensive concern: Al Riyadi Abbasiyah conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.67 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Al Ahed remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahed VS Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahed

(Home)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
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Al Riyadi Abbasiyah

(Away)
29 Jul
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 1
Tadamon
25 Jul
Racing
1 : 2
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
17 Jul
Tadamon
0 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
13 Jul
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
4 : 0
Racing
02 Jul
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 0
Racing
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)