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Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Tripoli SC

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Eze I.
32' Event
Mohtadi M.
63' Event
Mohtadi M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Al Ahli Nabatiya and Tripoli SC finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahli Nabatiya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Al Ahli Nabatiya
22%
Draws
60%
Tripoli SC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tripoli SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tripoli SC come out ahead of Al Ahli Nabatiya on wins alone.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Tripoli SC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Al Ahli Nabatiya Clean Sheet 20%
Tripoli SC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Nabatiya Tripoli SC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 8
Draws 11 8
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Tripoli SC
3:1
Apr 20, 2024 Lebanese Cup
Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Tripoli SC
0:1
Mar 24, 2024 Premier League
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahli Nabatiya
1:2
Feb 20, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Tripoli SC
1:0
Nov 12, 2023 Premier League
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahli Nabatiya
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahli Nabatiya Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohtadi M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Eze I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Tripoli SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Geronimo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli Nabatiya 20 / 100
Tripoli SC 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Nabatiya Tripoli SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TRI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Al Ahli Nabatiya scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Tripoli SC conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Al Ahli Nabatiya stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahli Nabatiya VS Tripoli SC
1 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%