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Al Ahli vs Al Wakra

Qatar Qatar

QSL Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
02:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Ahli host Al Wakra in the QSL. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: Al Ahli at 1.55 goals for, 1.9 against; Al Wakra at 1.47 for, 1.5 against. Past meetings favor Al Ahli slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 6, 2026, ending 3:2. xG projections (1.75 - 1.56) back Al Ahli to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Al Ahli
35%
Draws
32%
Al Wakra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Al Ahli's 1.55 goals per match outpaces what Al Wakra have produced (1.47).
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 15%
Al Wakra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Al Wakra
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.55 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 6, 2026 QSL
Al Wakra vs Al Ahli
3:2
Nov 11, 2025 QSL Cup
Al Ahli vs Al Wakra
2:2
Sep 13, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Al Wakra
5:3
Jan 11, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Al Wakra
6:3
Nov 15, 2024 QSL Cup
Al Wakra vs Al Ahli
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli 30 / 100
Al Wakra 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Al Wakra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Ahli scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 6.00 goals per match.

Al Wakra let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Al Ahli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahli VS Al Wakra
1.13 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahli

(Home)
29 Sept
Al Markhiya
1 : 1
Al Ahli
20 Sept
Al Ahli
0 : 1
Al Shahaniya
11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Al Ahli
03 Sept
Al Ahli
1 : 0
Qatar SC
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3
Lusail
Page 1 of 6

Al Wakra

(Away)
28 Sept
Al Kharitiyath
1 : 1
Al Wakra
20 Sept
Al Wakra
1 : 0
Al Sailiya
10 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Wakra
04 Sept
Lusail
4 : 0
Al Wakra
27 Aug
Al Wakra
1 : 2
Al Rayyan
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Sadd 4 4 0 0 19:7 12
2 Al Rayyan 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
3 Shamal 4 2 2 0 10:6 8
4 Al Arabi (Qatar) 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
5 Al Duhail 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
6 Lusail 4 1 2 1 7:4 5
7 Al Shahaniya 4 1 1 2 7:9 4
8 Al Ahli 4 1 1 2 5:9 4
9 Al Gharafa 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
10 Qatar SC 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
11 Al Wakra 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
12 Al Sailiya 4 0 0 4 5:13 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - QSL (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 2027/2028 (Main)