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Al Ahli vs Sama Al Sarhan

Jordan Jordan

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Azmi O.
33' Event
Abd Rabbo A.
35'
Al Husari A.

AI Match Summary

Al Ahli host Sama Al Sarhan in the Premier League. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Sama Al Sarhan have shipped 3.13 goals a game lately, while Al Ahli have conceded 1.5 and scored 1.25. Head-to-head, Al Ahli have won 3 to Sama Al Sarhan's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 14, 2026, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 2.19 vs 1.06, favoring Al Ahli. Al Ahli in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Al Ahli
6%
Draws
4%
Sama Al Sarhan
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al Ahli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Al Ahli has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Sama Al Sarhan.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Al Ahli.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Premier League provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 68%
Sama Al Sarhan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Sama Al Sarhan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 4
Draws 10 3
Losses 11 23
Goals Scored 1.25 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 3.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 3.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2026 Premier League
Sama Al Sarhan vs Al Ahli
2:3
Jan 30, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahli vs Sama Al Sarhan
0:4
Dec 27, 2025 Shield Cup
Al Ahli vs Sama Al Sarhan
2:1
Aug 14, 2025 Premier League
Sama Al Sarhan vs Al Ahli
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahli Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sama Al Sarhan Compare

Top Goalscorer Azmi O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abd Rabbo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli 95 / 100
Sama Al Sarhan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Sama Al Sarhan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahli scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Sama Al Sarhan let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Al Ahli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Sama Al Sarhan lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahli VS Sama Al Sarhan
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Hussein27195370:1762
2Al-Faisaly Amman27175552:2556
3Al Wehdat27166545:1954
4Al Ramtha27139540:2648
5Al Salt27971133:3534
6Al Jazeera Amman27871228:4531
7Shabab Al Ordon27781222:3729
8Al Buqaa27771341:6628
9Al Ahli27591326:4424
10Sama Al Sarhan27132315:586