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Al-Ahly Merowe vs Umm Mughad

Sudan Sudan

Premier League 2025
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Match Events

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AI Match Summary

Al-Ahly Merowe host Umm Mughad in the Premier League 2025. Al-Ahly Merowe are expected to control this from the start. Umm Mughad have shipped 0.63 goals a game lately, while Al-Ahly Merowe have conceded 0.83 and scored 0.5. Head-to-head, Al-Ahly Merowe have won 0 to Umm Mughad's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Jan 25, 2025, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.20 xG vs 1.00) point toward Al-Ahly Merowe. Al-Ahly Merowe in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Al-Ahly Merowe
17%
Draws
13%
Umm Mughad
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Al-Ahly Merowe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Umm Mughad has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Al-Ahly Merowe.
  • Model forecasts a 70% win probability edge for Al-Ahly Merowe.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Premier League 2025 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Al-Ahly Merowe Clean Sheet 20%
Umm Mughad Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Ahly Merowe Umm Mughad
Matches Played 27 23
Wins 4 9
Draws 13 8
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 0.5 2
Goals Conceded 0.83 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.83 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2025 Premier League
Al-Ahly Merowe vs Umm Mughad
1:1
Jan 15, 2025 Premier League
Al-Ahly Merowe vs Umm Mughad
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Ahly Merowe 67 / 100
Umm Mughad 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Ahly Merowe Umm Mughad

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Ahly Merowe scored in 44% of their last 27 games.

Umm Mughad let in goals in 61% of their last 23 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Al-Ahly Merowe went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Umm Mughad lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Ahly Merowe VS Umm Mughad
0.5 Goals Scored 2
0.83 Goals Conceded 0.63
33% Over 1.5 100%
17% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Mergheni83419:613
2Hilal Alsahil82607:512
3Al Shorta82338:89
4Al Hilal Manaqil82338:79
5Hay al-Arab82248:148
6Wad Nobawi00000:00
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Merreikh Obeid1061318:1219
2Zamala Ruwaba1045116:1117
3Rabita Kosti103528:914
4Hilal El-Fasher1033414:1412
5Haidob Al Nuhod1033410:1312
6Merikh Nyala101369:166
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hay Al Wadi63306:312
2Umm Mughad61505:48
3Al-Ahly Merowe61322:36
4Kober61143:64
5Al Zoma00000:00
6Tuti00000:00
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Madani851211:616
2Alamal SC Atbara835011:714
3Ahli Khartoum82338:109
4Alfalah Atbra82337:99
5Ahli Shendi81252:75