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Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Khmes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Libya Libya

Premier League Tripoli International Stadium, Tripoli
Thu, Oct 8, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Ahly Tripoli host Al Khmes in the Premier League. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Al Ahly Tripoli at 2.36 goals for, 0.41 against; Al Khmes at 0.9 for, 1.72 against. Head-to-head, Al Ahly Tripoli have won 4 to Al Khmes's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Oct 8, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.77 - 0.53) back Al Ahly Tripoli to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Al Ahly Tripoli
30%
Draws
19%
Al Khmes
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Ahly Tripoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Ahly Tripoli lately — more wins on the board than Al Khmes.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahly Tripoli taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Ahly Tripoli here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 20%
Al Khmes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahly Tripoli Al Khmes
Matches Played 44 29
Wins 35 7
Draws 7 5
Losses 2 17
Goals Scored 2.36 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.41 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.77 0.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Khmes
0:0
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Al Khmes vs Al Ahly Tripoli
1:3
Feb 2, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Khmes
5:2
Apr 6, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Khmes
4:1
Jan 23, 2025 Premier League
Al Khmes vs Al Ahly Tripoli
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahly Tripoli 85 / 100
Al Khmes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahly Tripoli Al Khmes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahly Tripoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahly Tripoli found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (44 games).

Al Khmes let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Al Ahly Tripoli remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahly Tripoli VS Al Khmes
2.25 Goals Scored 0.57
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.29
63% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 29%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahly Tripoli

(Home)
12 Sept
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 0
KMKM
05 Sept
KMKM
0 : 3
Al Ahly Tripoli
24 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
0 : 0
Asswehly
20 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
2 : 1
Olympic Azzaweya
14 May
Al Madina
0 : 1
Al Ahly Tripoli
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Al Khmes

(Away)
23 Apr
Abu Salim
0 : 0
Al Khmes
18 Apr
Al Khmes
1 : 3
Al Ahly Tripoli
13 Apr
Al Watan
0 : 1
Al Khmes
08 Apr
Al Khmes
2 : 2
Assabah
16 Mar
Al Malaab El Libby
2 : 0
Al Khmes
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ittihad 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Al Ahly Tripoli 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Olympic Azzaweya 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Asswehly 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Al Madina 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Al Khmes 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Al Ittihad Misurata 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Al Malaab El Libby 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Al Bashaer 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Al Majd 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Shabab Al Ghar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Al Watan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Assabah 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Al Shomooa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Premier League (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ahly Benghazi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Al Nasr 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Al Akhdar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Al Hilal Benghazi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Al Tahaddi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Darnes 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Al Sharara 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Al Taawun 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Al Sadaqa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Wefaq Ajdabiya 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Al Afreeki 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Military Union 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Al Jadida 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Al Batnan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Premier League (Play Offs)