Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Ahly vs Smouha

Egypt Egypt

Premier League 2025/2026 Cairo International Stadium, Cairo
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Trezeguet
Assist: Sayed A.
45' Event
Amadi S.
Assist: Ashraf H.
56'
Sub
Amer A. In: Reda S.
Out: Amer A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Al Ahly and Smouha finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahly.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Al Ahly
15%
Draws
7%
Smouha
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Ahly

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Smouha haven't matched Al Ahly's recent run of results.
  • 78% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahly taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Ahly have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Al Ahly Clean Sheet 68%
Smouha Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahly Smouha
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.48 0.86
Goals Conceded 1 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahly vs Smouha
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahly vs Smouha
2:1
Feb 23, 2026 Premier League
Smouha vs Al Ahly
0:1
Jan 7, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahly vs Smouha
2:0
Aug 8, 2024 Premier League
Smouha vs Al Ahly
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahly Compare

Top Goalscorer Trezeguet
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mohamed T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Smouha Compare

Top Goalscorer Amadi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahly 95 / 100
Smouha 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahly Smouha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahly Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahly found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (31 games).

Smouha let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Ahly remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahly VS Smouha
1.75 Goals Scored 0.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahly

(Home)
03 Sept
Al Ahly
1 : 0
Smouha
28 Aug
ZED FC
0 : 2
Al Ahly
23 Aug
Al Ahly
3 : 2
Enppi
19 Aug
Barcelona
2 : 1
Al Ahly
20 May
Al Masry
0 : 2
Al Ahly
Page 1 of 7

Smouha

(Away)
03 Sept
Al Ahly
1 : 0
Smouha
26 Aug
Smouha
0 : 0
Asyut Petroleum
22 Aug
Al Masry
1 : 0
Smouha
20 May
Pyramids
2 : 1
Smouha
05 May
Smouha
0 : 1
Zamalek
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zamalek 6 4 1 1 7:4 56
2 Pyramids 6 3 2 1 10:6 54
3 Al Ahly 6 4 1 1 11:5 53
4 Ceramica Cleopatra 6 1 3 2 5:5 44
5 Al Masry 6 2 2 2 6:9 40
6 Enppi 6 1 3 2 7:9 36
7 Smouha 6 0 0 6 2:10 31
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)