Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Diriyah vs Al-Ula

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Division 1 Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh
Sat, May 23, 2026
2 - 1
04:10 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Guanca C.
Assist: Al Khulaif A.
43'
Guanca C.
45'
Al Qahtani H.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Al Diriyah advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Al Diriyah
33%
Draws
27%
Al-Ula
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Al Diriyah

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Al-Ula haven't matched Al Diriyah's recent run of results.
  • Al Diriyah are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Al Diriyah have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Al-Ula, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al-Ula have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Al Diriyah Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Ula Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Diriyah Al-Ula
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 21 17
Draws 5 7
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 2 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Division 1
Al Diriyah vs Al-Ula
2:1
Feb 15, 2026 Division 1
Al Diriyah vs Al-Ula
1:3
Oct 20, 2025 Division 1
Al-Ula vs Al Diriyah
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Diriyah Compare

Top Goalscorer Laborde G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Al-Ula Compare

Top Goalscorer Guanca C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Diriyah 40 / 100
Al-Ula 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Diriyah Al-Ula

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DIR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Diriyah scored in 97% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.33 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Al-Ula conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Al Diriyah stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Diriyah VS Al-Ula
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Diriyah

(Home)
18 Jul
Trelleborg
1 : 4
Al Diriyah
23 May
Al Diriyah
2 : 1
Al-Ula
18 May
Al Diriyah
3 : 0
Al Jabalain
14 May
Al Diriyah
3 : 2
Al Bukiryah
09 May
Al Anwar
4 : 2
Al Diriyah
Page 1 of 7

Al-Ula

(Away)
20 Jul
Epitsentr
0 : 0
Al-Ula
23 May
Al Diriyah
2 : 1
Al-Ula
18 May
Al-Ula
2 : 1
Al Orubah
14 May
Al-Ula
4 : 2
Al Zulfi
09 May
Al Jubail
0 : 2
Al-Ula
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Al Diriyah3
Al Jabalain0
Al-Ula2
Al Orubah1
Final
Al Diriyah2
Al-Ula1