Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al-Faisaly vs Abha

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Division 1 2025/2026 Al Majma'ah Sports City, Al Majma'ah
Wed, Jan 21, 2026
3 - 0
12:35 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Dambelley A.
Assist: Al Mutairi M.
26'
Morato
46'
Sub
Al Sahli A. In: Al Nakhli M.
Out: Al Sahli A.

AI Match Summary

Al-Faisaly host Abha in the Division 1 2025/2026. Al-Faisaly are expected to control this from the start. Recent numbers: Al-Faisaly at 2.5 goals for, 0.25 against; Abha at 1.38 for, 1.5 against. Past meetings favor Al-Faisaly slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 21, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.20 vs 1.00, favoring Al-Faisaly. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Al-Faisaly
6%
Draws
4%
Abha
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al-Faisaly

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al-Faisaly come out ahead of Abha on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Al-Faisaly taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Al-Faisaly Clean Sheet 68%
Abha Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Faisaly Abha
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 21 20
Draws 5 5
Losses 3 5
Goals Scored 2.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.25 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Division 1
Al-Faisaly vs Abha
3:0
Sep 11, 2025 Division 1
Abha vs Al-Faisaly
2:2
Feb 18, 2025 Division 1
Al-Faisaly vs Abha
2:2
Oct 1, 2024 Division 1
Abha vs Al-Faisaly
3:1
May 6, 2022 Saudi Professional League
Abha vs Al-Faisaly
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Faisaly Compare

Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Abha Compare

Top Goalscorer Dambelley A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Faisaly 95 / 100
Abha 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Faisaly Abha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Al-Faisaly remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Al-Faisaly scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Abha let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Al-Faisaly VS Abha
2.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Faisaly

(Home)
01 Aug
Beltinci
1 : 3
Al-Faisaly
14 May
Al-Faisaly
4 : 0
Al Batin
09 May
Al Bukiryah
0 : 2
Al-Faisaly
02 May
Al-Faisaly
2 : 0
Al Jabalain
27 Apr
Al Raed
1 : 2
Al-Faisaly
Page 1 of 6

Abha

(Away)
31 Jul
Rizespor
0 : 0
Abha
19 Jul
Al Sharjah
2 : 1
Abha
13 May
Al Raed
5 : 1
Abha
09 May
Abha
0 : 1
Al Adalah
01 May
Al Diriyah
2 : 0
Abha
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Abha 34 24 5 5 64:35 77
2 Al-Faisaly 34 21 10 3 76:32 73
3 Al Diriyah 34 22 6 6 79:39 72
4 Al-Ula 34 21 8 5 72:33 71
5 Al Orubah 34 20 5 9 56:38 65
6 Al Jabalain 34 17 8 9 59:38 59
7 Al Raed 34 14 10 10 64:46 52
8 Al Zulfi 34 11 12 11 46:45 45
9 Al Taee 34 12 8 14 48:52 44
10 Al Wehda 34 12 7 15 52:58 43
11 Al Bukiryah 34 12 7 15 36:48 43
12 Al Anwar 34 10 11 13 53:54 41
13 Jeddah Club 34 9 12 13 34:51 39
14 Al Adalah 34 8 9 17 44:70 33
15 Al Jandal 34 8 8 18 34:60 32
16 Al Batin 34 5 7 22 39:69 22
17 Al Arabi (Saudi Arabia) 34 5 6 23 24:67 21
18 Al Jubail 34 3 5 26 28:73 14
Promotion - Saudi Professional League (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)