Sport Picks

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Al Fajr vs Al-Merreikh Obeid

Sudan Sudan

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Fajr in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Fajr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Al Fajr
6%
Draws
4%
Al-Merreikh Obeid
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al Fajr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Al-Merreikh Obeid have won more games recently than Al Fajr.
  • Al Fajr are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Al Fajr Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Merreikh Obeid Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Fajr Al-Merreikh Obeid
Matches Played 10 27
Wins 3 9
Draws 3 3
Losses 4 15
Goals Scored 1.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 27, 2026 Premier League
Al Fajr vs Al-Merreikh Obeid
3:0
Jan 7, 2026 Premier League
Al-Merreikh Obeid vs Al Fajr
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Fajr 85 / 100
Al-Merreikh Obeid 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Fajr Al-Merreikh Obeid

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Fajr found the back of the net in 100% of recent matches (10 games).

Difficult form: Al-Merreikh Obeid registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Al-Merreikh Obeid let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Al Fajr VS Al-Merreikh Obeid
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Fajr

(Home)
14 Feb
Zamala Ruwaba
5 : 1
Al Fajr
09 Feb
Hilal El-Fasher
2 : 2
Al Fajr
06 Feb
Hay Al Wadi
2 : 3
Al Fajr
01 Feb
Haidob Al Nuhod
2 : 1
Al Fajr
27 Jan
Al Fajr
3 : 0
Al-Merreikh Obeid
Page 1 of 2

Al-Merreikh Obeid

(Away)
13 Feb
Hay Al Wadi
3 : 2
Al-Merreikh Obeid
08 Feb
Haidob Al Nuhod
4 : 0
Al-Merreikh Obeid
05 Feb
Al-Merreikh Obeid
1 : 3
Hilal El-Fasher
31 Jan
Zamala Ruwaba
1 : 0
Al-Merreikh Obeid
27 Jan
Al Fajr
3 : 0
Al-Merreikh Obeid
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Hilal Omdurman II1064017:522
2Hilal Alsahil1054113:619
3Al Shorta103438:613
4Al Taqadom1025312:1411
5Al-Mergheni100739:147
6Kober101273:175
Promotion - Premier League (Championship Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Madani10100024:630
2Umm Mughad1053218:818
3Al Hilal Manaqil1035210:714
4Rabita Kosti103167:1410
5Ahli Khartoum101367:216
6Merikh Kosti101277:175
Promotion - Premier League (Championship Group)

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Merreikh II1064015:722
2Alfalah Atbra103435:413
3Al Saham Ad Damer1026210:912
4Al Hilal Karima1032511:1711
5Alamal SC Atbara102448:1010
6Al-Ahly Merowe101636:89
Promotion - Premier League (Championship Group)

League Standings (Group 4)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hilal El-Fasher1054111:719
2Hay Al Wadi1043314:1315
3Haidob Al Nuhod1043313:815
4Al Fajr1033416:1812
5Zamala Ruwaba1032511:1311
6Al-Merreikh Obeid1031614:2010
Promotion - Premier League (Championship Group)