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Al Fayha vs Al Nassr

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League King Abdullah Sports City Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Fayha play Al Nassr in the Saudi Professional League. Al Nassr are favorites here. Recently, Al Fayha averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Al Nassr averaged 2.37 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. In past meetings, Al Fayha won 0, Al Nassr won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 28, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Al Fayha and 2.38 for Al Nassr. This points to a Al Nassr double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Al Fayha
15%
Draws
62%
Al Nassr
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Nassr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Al Fayha picked up more points recently compared to Al Nassr.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 2.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Al Fayha Clean Sheet 10%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Fayha Al Nassr
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 23
Draws 7 2
Losses 15 5
Goals Scored 1.23 2.37
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Fayha vs Al Nassr
1:3
Nov 1, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Fayha
2:1
Feb 7, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Fayha
3:0
Aug 27, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Fayha vs Al Nassr
1:4
Apr 19, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Fayha
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Fayha Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Mane S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Al Hamdan A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Fayha 23 / 100
Al Nassr 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Fayha Al Nassr

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Nassr Win (2)
Secondary Pick Al Nassr & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +53.4%
6.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Al Fayha attacking → ← attacking Al Nassr

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Fayha scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Al Nassr let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Al Fayha went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Al Nassr lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 71
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 3.13
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al Nassr34282491:2886
2Al Hilal34259085:2784
3Al Ahli SC34256371:2581
4Al Qadsiah34238383:3477
5Al Ittihad341671155:4855
6Al Taawon341581159:4653
7Al Ettifaq FC341481251:5550
8Neom SC341291343:4845
9Al Hazem Rass341191438:5742
10Al Fayha341081641:5438
11Al Fateh349101541:5537
12Al Khaleej341071754:6237
13Al Shabab348111544:5735
14Al Kholood34961939:6133
15Al Riyadh34791835:6330
16Damac346111732:5529
17Al Okhdood34552427:7020
18Al Najma34372432:7616