Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd

Qatar Qatar

Emir Cup Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan
Al-Gharafa Logo

Al-Gharafa

4 - 1
FT
Al-Sadd Logo

Al-Sadd

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Sub
Henrique G. In: Ali H.
Out: Henrique G.
21' Event
Sassi F.
Assist: Al Ganehi A.
27' Event
Brahimi Y.
Assist: Sassi F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. The second leg ended 4-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Al-Gharafa
15%
Draws
78%
Al-Sadd
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al-Sadd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Al-Sadd carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 78% — that's where the model lands on Al-Sadd taking it.
  • Al-Sadd arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Al-Sadd, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Sadd Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Gharafa Al-Sadd
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 11 21
Draws 4 2
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.35 2.7
Goals Conceded 1.94 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 QSL
Al-Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
4:1
Sep 1, 2026 Qatar Cup
Al-Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
2:1
May 9, 2026 Emir Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
4:1
Jan 31, 2026 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
1:3
Sep 1, 2025 QSL Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Gharafa Compare

Top Goalscorer Brahimi Y.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Sassi F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Sadd Compare

Top Goalscorer Dilrosun J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Gharafa 10 / 100
Al-Sadd 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Gharafa Al-Sadd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Sadd Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Sadd let in goals in 91% of their last 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Al-Gharafa scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Al-Gharafa remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al-Gharafa VS Al-Sadd
1.75 Goals Scored 2.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Gharafa

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3
Shamal
Page 1 of 7

Al-Sadd

(Away)
14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0
Al-Sadd
10 Sept
Al Sailiya
3 : 6
Al-Sadd
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
28 Aug
Qatar SC
2 : 6
Al-Sadd
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Shamal -
TBD -
Qatar SC -
TBD -
Al-Sadd -
TBD -
Al Markhiya 2
Al Mesaimeer 1
Al-Duhail -
TBD -
Al-Waab 2
Lusail 0
Al-Shahaniya -
TBD -
TBD -
Al Arabi (Qatar) -
Al-Gharafa -
TBD -
Al-Kharitiyath 2
Al Bidda 1
Al Ahli -
TBD -
TBD -
Umm-Salal -
Al Rayyan -
TBD -
TBD -
Al Khor -
Al Wakra -
TBD -
Al Sailiya 2
Muaither SC 1
1/8-finals
Shamal 2
Qatar SC 1
Al-Sadd 2
Al Markhiya 1
Al-Duhail 2
Al-Waab 0
Al-Shahaniya 0
Al Arabi (Qatar) 2
Al-Gharafa 2
Al-Kharitiyath 0
Al Ahli 2
Umm-Salal 4
Al Rayyan 2
Al Khor 0
Al Wakra 2
Al Sailiya 0
Quarter-finals
Shamal 4
Al-Sadd 6
Al-Duhail 4
Al Arabi (Qatar) 0
Al-Gharafa 2
Umm-Salal 1
Al Rayyan 0
Al Wakra 3
Semi-finals
Al-Sadd 4
Al-Duhail 1
Al-Gharafa 1
Al Wakra 0
Final
Al-Sadd 1
Al-Gharafa 4