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Al-Gharafa vs Shamal

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha
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Match Events

33'
Bounedjah B.
41'
Al Khlif Y. M.
50'
Sassi F.

AI Match Summary

The QSL 2025/2026 game between Al-Gharafa and Shamal finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shamal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Al-Gharafa
6%
Draws
4%
Shamal
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al-Gharafa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Shamal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Al-Gharafa a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Shamal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Gharafa Shamal
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 11 13
Draws 5 7
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.25 1.88
Goals Conceded 2.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Shamal
0:1
Oct 27, 2025 QSL Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Shamal
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Al-Gharafa
0:0
Feb 8, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Al-Gharafa
1:2
Oct 12, 2024 QSL Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Shamal
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Gharafa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Shamal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohamed O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Gharafa 85 / 100
Shamal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Gharafa Shamal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Gharafa's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Shamal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Al-Gharafa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Shamal's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al-Gharafa VS Shamal
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Gharafa

(Home)
27 Jul
Al Riyadh
2 : 2
Al-Gharafa
19 Jul
Samorin
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
09 May
Al-Gharafa
4 : 1
Al-Sadd
05 May
Al Wakra
0 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1
Umm-Salal
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Shamal

(Away)
01 May
Shamal
4 : 6
Al-Sadd
27 Apr
Al-Sadd
3 : 2
Shamal
13 Apr
Shamal
3 : 0
Qatar SC
08 Apr
Al-Shahaniya
2 : 0
Shamal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Sadd22143556:3045
2Shamal22124639:2840
3Al Rayyan22115646:3238
4Al-Gharafa22113836:3636
5Al-Duhail2296740:2733
6Al Arabi (Qatar)2295837:4132
7Al Wakra2286836:3430
8Qatar SC2285932:3629
9Al Ahli22821234:4326
10Al Sailiya22641225:3822
11Al-Shahaniya22631322:3921
12Umm-Salal22621437:5620
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)