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Al-Gharafa vs Shamal

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Bounedjah B.
41'
Al Khlif Y. M.
50'
Sassi F.

AI Match Summary

The QSL 2025/2026 game between Al-Gharafa and Shamal finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shamal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Al-Gharafa
30%
Draws
62%
Shamal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shamal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Shamal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Shamal a 62% chance of winning this.
  • Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Shamal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Gharafa Shamal
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.37 1.93
Goals Conceded 2 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 27, 2026 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Shamal
1:3
Feb 22, 2026 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Shamal
0:1
Oct 27, 2025 QSL Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Shamal
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Al-Gharafa
0:0
Feb 8, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Al-Gharafa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Gharafa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Shamal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohamed O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Gharafa 12 / 100
Shamal 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Gharafa Shamal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shamal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Gharafa's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Shamal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Al-Gharafa stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Gharafa VS Shamal
1.75 Goals Scored 2.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Gharafa

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3
Shamal
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Shamal

(Away)
14 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Ittihad
10 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Wakra
04 Sept
Shamal
4 : 2
Al-Shahaniya
01 Sept
Shamal
3 : 4
Al Rayyan
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3
Shamal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)