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Al Gharafa vs Shamal Prediction & H2H Stats

Qatar Qatar

QSL Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha
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Match Events

24'
Sub
Hrimat M. In: Ben Romdhane M.
Out: Hrimat M.
25'
Hassan A.
30'
Collado A.

AI Match Summary

The QSL game between Al Gharafa and Shamal finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shamal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Al Gharafa
30%
Draws
51%
Shamal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shamal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Shamal come out ahead of Al Gharafa on wins alone.
  • Shamal are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular QSL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Al Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Shamal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Gharafa Shamal
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.43 1.9
Goals Conceded 2 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 27, 2026 QSL
Al Gharafa vs Shamal
1:3
Feb 22, 2026 QSL
Al Gharafa vs Shamal
0:1
Oct 27, 2025 QSL Cup
Al Gharafa vs Shamal
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Al Gharafa
0:0
Feb 8, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Al Gharafa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Gharafa Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Shamal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohamed O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Asad A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Gharafa 10 / 100
Shamal 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Gharafa Shamal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shamal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Gharafa scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Shamal let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Al Gharafa has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al-Gharafa VS Shamal
1.63 Goals Scored 2.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Gharafa

(Home)
01 Oct
Al-Gharafa
4 : 2
Al Mesaimeer
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
Page 1 of 6

Shamal

(Away)
01 Oct
Shamal
2 : 1
Muaither SC
22 Sept
Al Bidda
0 : 4
Shamal
14 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Ittihad
10 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Wakra
04 Sept
Shamal
4 : 2
Al-Shahaniya
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 4 4 0 0 19:7 12
2 Al Rayyan 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
3 Shamal 4 2 2 0 10:6 8
4 Al Arabi (Qatar) 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
5 Al-Duhail 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
6 Lusail 4 1 2 1 7:4 5
7 Al-Shahaniya 4 1 1 2 7:9 4
8 Al Ahli 4 1 1 2 5:9 4
9 Al-Gharafa 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
10 Qatar SC 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
11 Al Wakra 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
12 Al Sailiya 4 0 0 4 5:13 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - QSL (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 2027/2028 (Main)