Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Gharraf vs Al Najaf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
Agbotcho M.

AI Match Summary

Al Gharraf in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Gharraf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Al Gharraf
20%
Draws
51%
Al Najaf
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Najaf

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Al Gharraf have won more games recently than Al Najaf.
  • Al Gharraf are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 68%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Gharraf Al Najaf
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 14 20
Goals Scored 1.1 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al Najaf
1:0
Jan 18, 2026 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Al Gharraf
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Gharraf Compare

Top Goalscorer Agbotcho M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Al Najaf Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Gharraf 51 / 100
Al Najaf 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Gharraf Al Najaf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Najaf's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

Al Gharraf found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Al Gharraf has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Gharraf VS Al Najaf
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Gharraf

(Home)
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
26 Aug
Al Minaa
3 : 0
Al Gharraf
22 Aug
Al Gharraf
1 : 0
Newroz
16 Aug
Duhok
1 : 1
Al Gharraf
02 Jun
Al Gharraf
0 : 2
Naft Missan
Page 1 of 6

Al Najaf

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1
Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5
Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1
Al Najaf
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)