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Al Gharraf vs Ghaz Al Shamal Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Outtara S.
Assist: Esso J.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Gharraf and Ghaz Al Shamal finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ghaz Al Shamal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Al Gharraf
35%
Draws
56%
Ghaz Al Shamal
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ghaz Al Shamal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Gharraf come out ahead of Ghaz Al Shamal on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 20%
Ghaz Al Shamal Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Gharraf Ghaz Al Shamal
Matches Played 30 8
Wins 6 1
Draws 8 5
Losses 16 2
Goals Scored 0.9 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Ghaz Al Shamal
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Gharraf Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ghaz Al Shamal Compare

Top Goalscorer Outtara S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Gharraf 36 / 100
Ghaz Al Shamal 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Gharraf Ghaz Al Shamal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ghaz Al Shamal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ghaz Al Shamal let in goals in 63% of their last 8 matches.

Al Gharraf scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Al Gharraf went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Gharraf VS Ghaz Al Shamal
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Gharraf

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 6

Ghaz Al Shamal

(Away)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Duhok
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
04 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 1
Al Golan
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)