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Al Ghazieh vs Shabab Baalbeck

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Manombi
42'
45' Event
Ayinde Y.

AI Match Summary

Al Ghazieh host Shabab Baalbeck in the Premier League 2024/2025. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Shabab Baalbeck have shipped 1.88 goals a game lately, while Al Ghazieh have conceded 1.5 and scored 1.25. Head-to-head, Al Ghazieh have won 1 to Shabab Baalbeck's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Jun 19, 2025, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.56 xG vs 1.25) point toward Al Ghazieh. Al Ghazieh in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Al Ghazieh
17%
Draws
13%
Shabab Baalbeck
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Al Ghazieh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Al Ghazieh has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Shabab Baalbeck.
  • Model forecasts a 70% win probability edge for Al Ghazieh.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Premier League 2024/2025 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 68%
Shabab Baalbeck Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ghazieh Shabab Baalbeck
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 5 4
Draws 8 6
Losses 18 20
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2025 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Shabab Baalbeck
1:2
May 19, 2025 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Shabab Baalbeck
2:2
Apr 18, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Al Ghazieh
1:1
Jan 25, 2025 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Al Ghazieh
1:0
Feb 2, 2019 Premier League
Shabab Baalbeck vs Al Ghazieh
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ghazieh Compare

Top Goalscorer Ayinde Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Shabab Baalbeck Compare

Top Goalscorer Manombi
1 Goals
Assists Leader Asaad M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ghazieh 77 / 100
Shabab Baalbeck 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ghazieh Shabab Baalbeck

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ghazieh scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

Shabab Baalbeck let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Al Ghazieh went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Shabab Baalbeck lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ghazieh VS Shabab Baalbeck
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%