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Al Hilal vs Al Fateh Prediction & H2H Stats

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

King Cup 2025/2026 Kingdom Arena, Riyadh
Al Hilal Logo

Al Hilal

4 - 1
FT
Al Fateh Logo

Al Fateh

Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Malcom
23' Event
Neves R.
26'
Neves R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-1, with Al Hilal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Al Hilal
30%
Draws
14%
Al Fateh
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Hilal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Hilal come out ahead of Al Fateh on wins alone.
  • Al Hilal are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Al Hilal have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Hilal, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Hilal have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Al Hilal Clean Sheet 20%
Al Fateh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Hilal Al Fateh
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 22 4
Draws 6 11
Losses 3 16
Goals Scored 2.39 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Fateh vs Al Hilal
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 King Cup
Al Hilal vs Al Fateh
4:1
Nov 22, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Hilal vs Al Fateh
2:1
May 16, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Fateh vs Al Hilal
3:4
Jan 16, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Hilal vs Al Fateh
9:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Hilal Compare

Top Goalscorer Malcom
1 Goals
Assists Leader Neves R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Al Fateh Compare

Top Goalscorer Vargas M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Hilal 85 / 100
Al Fateh 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Hilal Al Fateh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Hilal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Hilal scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

Al Fateh's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Al Hilal went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Hilal VS Al Fateh
2.75 Goals Scored 0.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Hilal

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
12 Sept
Al Taawon
0 : 6
Al Hilal
07 Sept
Al Hilal
0 : 2
Neom SC
04 Sept
Al Shabab
0 : 2
Al Hilal
01 Sept
Al Hilal
3 : 0
Al Ahli SC
Page 1 of 7

Al Fateh

(Away)
13 Sept
Neom SC
4 : 2
Al Fateh
09 Sept
Al Fateh
1 : 2
Al Diriyah
05 Sept
Al Taawon
0 : 0
Al Fateh
29 Aug
Al Fateh
0 : 0
Al Ittihad
26 Aug
Al-Faisaly
1 : 1
Al Fateh
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Al Batin 3
Al Ettifaq FC 2
Al Arabi (Saudi Arabia) 0
Al Ahli SC 5
Al Orubah 1
Al Qadsiah 3
Al Hazem Rass 2
Neom SC 1
Al Raed 0
Al Okhdood 1
Al Adalah 0
Al Hilal 1
Al Jabalain 1
Al Fateh 2
Al Jubail 0
Al Riyadh 1
Al Bukiryah 1
Al Kholood 2
Al Najma 2
Damac 1
Al Taee 0
Al Khaleej 5
Al-Faisaly 0
Al Taawon 4
Jeddah Club 0
Al Nassr 4
Al Wehda 0
Al Ittihad 1
Abha 2
Al Shabab 3
Al Zulfi 1
Al Fayha 0
1/8-finals
Al Batin 0
Al Ahli SC 3
Al Qadsiah 3
Al Hazem Rass 1
Al Okhdood 0
Al Hilal 1
Al Fateh 2
Al Riyadh 0
Al Kholood 1
Al Najma 0
Al Khaleej 2
Al Taawon 1
Al Nassr 1
Al Ittihad 2
Al Shabab 1
Al Zulfi 0
Quarter-finals
Al Ahli SC 4
Al Qadsiah 3
Al Hilal 4
Al Fateh 1
Al Kholood 4
Al Khaleej 3
Al Ittihad 4
Al Shabab 1
Semi-finals
Al Ahli SC 1
Al Hilal 2
Al Kholood 3
Al Ittihad 2
Final
Al Hilal 2
Al Kholood 1