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Al Karkh vs Baghdad Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Abdel Amir M.
(Penalty)
30' Event
Hmoud Y.
54' Event
Hmoud Y.

AI Match Summary

Al Karkh in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Karkh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Al Karkh
15%
Draws
26%
Baghdad
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Karkh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Karkh have won more games recently than Baghdad.
  • Model gives Al Karkh a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Al Karkh Clean Sheet 19%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Karkh Baghdad
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.31 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Baghdad
2:1
Jan 18, 2026 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Karkh
1:1
May 28, 2024 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Baghdad
0:0
Nov 3, 2023 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Karkh
1:1
May 20, 2022 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Baghdad
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Karkh Compare

Top Goalscorer Hmoud Y.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Baghdad Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Karkh 58 / 100
Baghdad 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Karkh Baghdad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Karkh Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Baghdad conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Al Karkh has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Baghdad lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Karkh VS Baghdad
1.25 Goals Scored 1.17
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.83
75% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Karkh

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Duhok
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
29 Aug
Al Karkh
2 : 2
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

Baghdad

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)