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Al Karkh vs Naft Missan Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Gueye Dieme D.
Assist: Sfaxi A.
14' Event
Alaa S.
Assist: Zakri Y.
23' Event
Sou E.
Assist: Zakri Y.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Karkh and Naft Missan finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Karkh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Al Karkh
30%
Draws
29%
Naft Missan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Karkh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Naft Missan haven't matched Al Karkh's recent run of results.
  • Al Karkh are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Al Karkh Clean Sheet 68%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Karkh Naft Missan
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.31 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Naft Missan
3:2
Mar 18, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Naft Missan
1:1
Oct 27, 2025 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Karkh
1:2
Mar 2, 2025 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Karkh
1:2
Oct 25, 2024 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Naft Missan
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Karkh Compare

Top Goalscorer Alaa S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sou E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Naft Missan Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueye Dieme D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sfaxi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Karkh 68 / 100
Naft Missan 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Karkh Naft Missan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Karkh Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Naft Missan conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Al Karkh has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Al Karkh found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Al Karkh VS Naft Missan
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Karkh

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Duhok
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
29 Aug
Al Karkh
2 : 2
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

Naft Missan

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
29 Aug
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Naft Missan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)