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Al Karma vs Naft Missan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Hamdi M.
Assist: Amadi S.
68' Event
Hamdi M.
Assist: Saadeh I.
71' Event
Kane O.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Karma and Naft Missan finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Al Karma
30%
Draws
12%
Naft Missan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Karma come out ahead of Naft Missan on wins alone.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Al Karma taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Al Karma Clean Sheet 20%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Karma Naft Missan
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 7
Draws 12 11
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 1.61 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.68 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 6, 2026 Stars League
Al Karma vs Naft Missan
4:1
May 14, 2026 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Karma
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Stars League
Al Karma vs Naft Missan
3:0
Feb 20, 2025 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Karma
3:2
Dec 6, 2024 Stars League
Al Karma vs Naft Missan
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Hamdi M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bassene P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Naft Missan Compare

Top Goalscorer Kane O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Karma 85 / 100
Naft Missan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Karma Naft Missan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Karma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Karma scored in 84% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Naft Missan conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Al Karma remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Karma VS Naft Missan
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Karma

(Home)
06 Nov
Al Karma
4 : 1
Naft Missan
30 Oct
Al Karma
1 : 0
Duhok
24 Oct
Al Minaa
2 : 1
Al Karma
17 Oct
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 0
Al Karma
10 Oct
Al Karma
3 : 2
Al Karkh
Page 1 of 7

Naft Missan

(Away)
06 Nov
Al Karma
4 : 1
Naft Missan
31 Oct
Naft Missan
0 : 0
Zakho
25 Oct
Ghaz Al Shamal
1 : 0
Naft Missan
16 Oct
Diyala
2 : 0
Naft Missan
08 Oct
Naft Missan
1 : 1
Erbil
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 12 7 4 1 14:5 25
4 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
5 Al Shorta 12 5 6 1 13:6 21
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 12 5 4 3 15:8 19
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
14 Al Gharraf 12 3 4 5 8:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)