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Al Masry vs El Gouna Prediction & H2H Stats

Egypt Egypt

League Cup 2025/2026 Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Metawea M.
17' Event
Emad M.
Assist: Mahmoud M.
23'
Sub
Hashem M. In: Sawafta A.
Out: Hashem M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this League Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-2. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Al Masry
20%
Draws
20%
El Gouna
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Masry

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Al Masry have won more games recently than El Gouna.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Al Masry taking it.
  • Al Masry have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Masry, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Al Masry Clean Sheet 20%
El Gouna Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Masry El Gouna
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 7
Draws 8 13
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.18 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.11 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2026 League Cup
Al Masry vs El Gouna
2:2
Mar 26, 2026 League Cup
El Gouna vs Al Masry
0:2
Mar 10, 2026 Premier League
El Gouna vs Al Masry
1:0
Nov 9, 2024 Premier League
Al Masry vs El Gouna
0:0
Jul 1, 2024 Premier League
Al Masry vs El Gouna
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Masry Compare

Top Goalscorer Makhlouf M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader El Saaiy O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

El Gouna Compare

Top Goalscorer Emad M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Refaat A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Masry 42 / 100
El Gouna 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Masry El Gouna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Masry found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

El Gouna's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: El Gouna has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Masry VS El Gouna
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Masry

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Masry
0 : 2
Al Ittihad Alexandria
07 Sept
Petrojet
2 : 1
Al Masry
31 Aug
Al Masry
0 : 1
Pyramids
27 Aug
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
2 : 3
Al Masry
22 Aug
Al Masry
1 : 0
Smouha
Page 1 of 6

El Gouna

(Away)
16 Sept
El Gouna
1 : 2
Petrojet
09 Sept
Pyramids
1 : 0
El Gouna
02 Sept
El Gouna
0 : 1
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
28 Aug
Al Qanah
1 : 1
El Gouna
23 Aug
El Gouna
1 : 1
Modern Sport
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Enppi 4
Petrojet 1
Wadi Degla 4
El Gaish 3
ZED FC 1
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon) 1
El Gouna 2
Al Masry 4
Semi-finals
Enppi 1
Wadi Degla 0
ZED FC 1
Al Masry 2
Final
Enppi 0
Al Masry 3
Wadi Degla 2
ZED FC 0