Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al-Merreikh vs Bugesera

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2025/2026 Al Merreikh Stadium, Omdurman
Al-Merreikh Logo

Al-Merreikh

3 - 0
FT
Bugesera Logo

Bugesera

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Al-Merreikh in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al-Merreikh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Al-Merreikh
20%
Draws
64%
Bugesera
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bugesera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Al-Merreikh have won more games recently than Bugesera.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Al-Merreikh Clean Sheet 68%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Merreikh Bugesera
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 11 4
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.22 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Premier League
Al-Merreikh vs Bugesera
3:0
Nov 27, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Al-Merreikh
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Merreikh 41 / 100
Bugesera 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Merreikh Bugesera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Merreikh Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Merreikh found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Bugesera conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Bugesera has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al-Merreikh VS Bugesera
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Merreikh

(Home)
31 May
Gorilla
3 : 1
Al-Merreikh
27 May
Al-Merreikh
1 : 2
APR
22 May
Al-Merreikh
1 : 1
Al-Hilal Omdurman
17 May
Amagaju
1 : 0
Al-Merreikh
10 May
Al-Merreikh
0 : 1
Kiyovu
Page 1 of 7

Bugesera

(Away)
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
09 May
Gicumbi
2 : 1
Bugesera
06 May
Bugesera
0 : 4
Marines
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 74:25 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 50:28 68
3 Al-Merreikh 34 16 11 7 41:24 59
4 Rayon Sport 34 14 14 6 40:30 56
5 Kiyovu 34 13 14 7 34:21 53
6 Police 34 12 16 6 29:19 52
7 Mukura Victory Sports 34 12 11 11 36:38 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 47:43 45
9 Bugesera 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
10 Musanze 34 11 10 13 38:37 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 31:42 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38:54 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 32:40 37
14 AS Kigali 34 8 11 15 27:39 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 29:44 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 19:38 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 25:46 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 30:47 29
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)