Sport Picks

Rwanda

Premier League Al Merreikh Stadium

Muhanga

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Al-Merreikh play Muhanga in the Premier League. Muhanga are favorites here. Recently, Al-Merreikh averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. Muhanga averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Al-Merreikh won 1, Muhanga won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 19, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Al-Merreikh and 1.00 for Muhanga. This points to a Muhanga double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%

Al-Merreikh

25%

Draws

60%

Muhanga

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Muhanga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Al-Merreikh picked up more points recently compared to Muhanga.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 61%

Over 2.5 Goals 39%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Al-Merreikh Clean Sheet 23%

Muhanga Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 55%

Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Al-Merreikh	Muhanga
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	8
Draws	11	6
Losses	5	16
Goals Scored	1.27	0.8
Goals Conceded	0.73	1.37
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Premier League

Al-Merreikh vs Muhanga

Possession: 43% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

3:0

Dec 29, 2025 Premier League

Muhanga vs Al-Merreikh

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Merreikh 18 / 100

Muhanga 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Al-Merreikh Muhanga

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Muhanga Win (2)

Secondary Pick Muhanga & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +114.3%

14.29

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Al-Merreikh attacking → ← attacking Muhanga

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Merreikh scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Muhanga let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Al-Merreikh went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Muhanga lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 30

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Hilal Omdurman	34	23	6	5	74:25	75
2	APR	34	19	11	4	50:28	68
3	Al-Merreikh	34	16	11	7	41:24	59
4	Rayon Sport	34	14	14	6	40:30	56
5	Kiyovu	34	13	14	7	34:21	53
6	Police	34	12	16	6	29:19	52
7	Mukura Victory Sports	34	12	11	11	36:38	47
8	Marines	34	12	9	13	47:43	45
9	Bugesera	34	12	8	14	34:39	44
10	Musanze	34	11	10	13	38:37	43
11	Gorilla	34	10	10	14	31:42	40
12	Gicumbi	34	10	8	16	38:54	38
13	Etincelles	34	7	16	11	32:40	37
14	AS Kigali	34	8	11	15	27:39	35
15	Gasogi United	34	8	11	15	29:44	35
16	Amagaju	34	9	8	17	19:38	35
17	Muhanga	34	8	7	19	25:46	31
18	Rutsiro	34	6	11	17	30:47	29