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Al Minaa vs Baghdad Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

48' Event
Samia Y.
Assist: Kisinda T.
72' Event
Samia Y.
78' Event
Samia Y.
Assist: Kisinda T.

AI Match Summary

Al Minaa in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Minaa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Al Minaa
20%
Draws
48%
Baghdad
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Baghdad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Baghdad haven't matched Al Minaa's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Al Minaa Clean Sheet 68%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Minaa Baghdad
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 11 7
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2026 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Baghdad
4:0
Feb 6, 2026 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Minaa
0:0
May 21, 2024 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Baghdad
0:2
Mar 5, 2024 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Minaa
0:1
May 28, 2022 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Minaa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Minaa Compare

Top Goalscorer Samia Y.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Majji R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Baghdad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Minaa 41 / 100
Baghdad 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Minaa Baghdad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Minaa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baghdad has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Al Minaa's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Baghdad lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Minaa VS Baghdad
0.88 Goals Scored 1.17
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.83
50% Over 1.5 67%
25% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Minaa

(Home)
18 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Duhok
13 Sept
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Al Minaa
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6

Baghdad

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)