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Al Muharraq vs Al Ahli Prediction & H2H Stats

Bahrain Bahrain

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
43' Event
Al Malood A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al Muharraq and Al Ahli finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Al Muharraq
30%
Draws
39%
Al Ahli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Ahli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Muharraq come out ahead of Al Ahli on wins alone.
  • 31% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Al Muharraq Clean Sheet 20%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Muharraq Al Ahli
Matches Played 33 33
Wins 23 12
Draws 4 7
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.91 1.39
Goals Conceded 0.67 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Premier League
Al Muharraq vs Al Ahli
1:1
Apr 11, 2026 King's Cup
Al Muharraq vs Al Ahli
2:1
Jan 15, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahli vs Al Muharraq
0:1
Sep 12, 2025 Premier League
Al Muharraq vs Al Ahli
3:0
May 17, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahli vs Al Muharraq
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Muharraq Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Malood A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Al Ahli Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Muharraq 31 / 100
Al Ahli 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Muharraq Al Ahli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Muharraq Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Muharraq's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Defensive concern: Al Ahli conceded in 67% of 33 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Al Muharraq stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Muharraq VS Al Ahli
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Muharraq

(Home)
15 Sept
Arkadag
1 : 0
Al Muharraq
10 Sept
Al Muharraq
3 : 1
Manama Club
04 Sept
Al Ittifaq
1 : 0
Al Muharraq
28 Aug
Al Muharraq
1 : 1
Al Ahli
06 Aug
ZED FC
1 : 0
Al Muharraq
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Al Ahli

(Away)
12 Sept
Al Ahli
0 : 2
Al Ittifaq
05 Sept
Al Hidd
0 : 1
Al Ahli
28 Aug
Al Muharraq
1 : 1
Al Ahli
15 May
Al Budaiya
2 : 2
Al Ahli
11 May
Al Ahli
0 : 1
Al Hidd
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Khalidiyah 3 2 1 0 10:3 7
2 Al Riffa 3 2 1 0 7:1 7
3 Al Ittifaq 3 2 0 1 3:2 6
4 Sitra 3 1 2 0 3:0 5
5 Al Ahli 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
6 Al Hidd 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
7 Al Muharraq 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
8 Aali Club 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
9 East Riffa 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
10 Al Najma 3 1 0 2 5:10 3
11 Manama Club 3 0 1 2 3:9 1
12 Malkia 3 0 0 3 0:5 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)