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Al Naft vs Al Karkh - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Caique
Assist: Gbadebo S.
22' Event
Caique
Assist: Kouvouama C. M.
50'
Hien S.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Naft and Al Karkh finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Al Naft
30%
Draws
23%
Al Karkh
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Naft come out ahead of Al Karkh on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Al Naft taking it.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 68%
Al Karkh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Naft Al Karkh
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 9
Draws 12 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 0.86 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Karkh
2:0
Mar 6, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Karkh
0:1
Oct 3, 2025 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Al Naft
2:2
Apr 27, 2025 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Al Naft
1:1
Nov 25, 2024 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Karkh
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Caique
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Al Karkh Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Naft 86 / 100
Al Karkh 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Naft Al Karkh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Karkh has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Al Naft remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Al Naft's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al Naft VS Al Karkh
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Naft

(Home)
08 Nov
Al Shorta
2 : 1
Al Naft
29 Oct
Al Naft
1 : 0
Al Kahraba
22 Oct
Al Gharraf
0 : 0
Al Naft
17 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Zakho
09 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Diyala
Page 1 of 6

Al Karkh

(Away)
07 Nov
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 1
Al Karkh
31 Oct
Al Karkh
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
23 Oct
Al Karkh
1 : 1
Al Mosul
18 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Al Karkh
10 Oct
Al Karma
3 : 2
Al Karkh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)