Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Naft vs Diyala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Naft host Diyala in the Stars League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Al Naft have averaged 0.83 scored and 0.79 conceded recently, against Diyala's 1.07 scored and 1.37 conceded. Past meetings favor Al Naft slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2026, ending 1:0. xG projections (1.38 - 0.94) back Al Naft to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Al Naft
30%
Draws
23%
Diyala
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Naft come out ahead of Diyala on wins alone.
  • Model gives Al Naft a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 20%
Diyala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Naft Diyala
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 12 7
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 0.83 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Naft
1:0
Jan 9, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Diyala
2:1
Apr 10, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Diyala
2:0
Dec 1, 2024 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Naft
0:0
Mar 20, 2011 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Naft
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Naft 49 / 100
Diyala 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Naft Diyala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Diyala conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Al Naft stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Al Naft found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Al Naft VS Diyala
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Naft

(Home)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
Page 1 of 6

Diyala

(Away)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)