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Al Naft vs Diyala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

88' Event
Kareem W.
90' Event
Opare C.
Assist: Rahim A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Naft and Diyala finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Al Naft
30%
Draws
23%
Diyala
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Naft come out ahead of Diyala on wins alone.
  • Model gives Al Naft a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 68%
Diyala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Naft Diyala
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 12 8
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 0.86 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Diyala
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Naft
1:0
Jan 9, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Diyala
2:1
Apr 10, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Diyala
2:0
Dec 1, 2024 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Naft
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Kareem W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Opare C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Diyala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Naft 95 / 100
Diyala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Naft Diyala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Diyala conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Al Naft remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Al Naft scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Naft VS Diyala
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Naft

(Home)
08 Nov
Al Shorta
2 : 1
Al Naft
29 Oct
Al Naft
1 : 0
Al Kahraba
22 Oct
Al Gharraf
0 : 0
Al Naft
17 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Zakho
09 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Diyala
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Diyala

(Away)
05 Nov
Diyala
0 : 0
Al Minaa
31 Oct
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Diyala
24 Oct
Newroz
0 : 0
Diyala
16 Oct
Diyala
2 : 0
Naft Missan
09 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Diyala
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)